FED Rate Cuts Could Push Ethereum Price to $8K by Year-End, Says Sean Dawson

In an exclusive conversation with Coinpedia, Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive, shared his perspective on the macro and on-chain forces shaping the crypto markets, particularly Ethereum’s trajectory. From Federal Reserve policy shifts to the growing role of ETH treasury companies, Sean outlined what could be the biggest drivers for crypto going into 2025.

Fed Rate Cuts Likely in September

Sean told Coinpedia he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with “odds hovering at 95% on Fedwatch and about 80% on Polymarket.”

He attributes this likelihood to labor market strain — rising unemployment and weaker revised job reports have created pressure for a monetary policy shift.

Layer-2 Scaling vs. Macroeconomic Forces for Ethereum

When asked how upgrades like Dencun stack up against broader macro influences, Sean was clear:

“The overwhelming driver of ETH’s price action this cycle has been via treasury companies like Bitmine and Ethermachine. These now hold 3.6 million ETH (~3% of total ETH supply), up from virtually nothing in April this year.”

He explained that demand for these treasury vehicles is largely macro-driven — the expectation of falling rates and increased US government spending through the “Big Beautiful Bill” has pushed investors toward high-beta plays like ETH treasuries.

That said, Sean acknowledged that Layer-2 solutions are vital, providing the vision of a scalable internet financial system, even if macro tailwinds have been the bigger short-term catalyst.

Ethereum’s Strong Run Against Bitcoin

Ethereum has recently shown strong relative performance against Bitcoin, and Sean sees this trend continuing:

“The sudden rise in ETH treasury companies will be a huge injection of fuel into widespread ETH adoption. I could see the ETH/BTC ratio climbing from the current 0.033 back up to 2017 levels — around 0.1 to 0.15 — by year-end.”

Price Outlook for 2025

Looking further ahead, Sean sees both Bitcoin and Ethereum with big upside potential:

• Bitcoin (BTC): 50/50 odds of breaking $150K by year-end, with about a 12% chance of a parabolic move to $200K based on options market pricing.
• Ethereum (ETH): More volatile than BTC, with 50/50 odds of reaching $6K and a 25% chance of hitting $8K, especially if treasury demand and macro trends align.

Ethereum ETFs vs. Bitcoin ETFs in the Next Cycle

On whether Ethereum ETFs could surpass Bitcoin ETFs in inflows, Sean said:

“Definitely possible, but unlikely. BTC is the canonical crypto. ETH’s utility will make flows more comparable over time, but BTC will likely remain the institutional favorite.”

L2 Tokens in Institutional Portfolios

Sean doesn’t expect Layer-2 tokens to rival ETH in institutional holdings anytime soon:

“It took ETH years to reach its current adoption relative to BTC. L2s are fragmented and derive value from ETH, so for now, risk-averse institutions will stick to ETH.”

Undervalued Layer-1 Ecosystems

While most of his outlook centers on BTC and ETH adoption, Sean noted that Solana could see upside later in the cycle, especially if meme coin trading activity rebounds. If Solana adopts the treasury company playbook, it could mirror ETH’s growth trajectory.