Bitcoin $114,988.95 Positive expectations for the long term in the market began to weaken. The difference in the price volatility calculated for 180 -day options traded on Deribit, that is, the “SKEW” indicator, indicates that the market becomes directed by going down to zero. According to Amberdata’nın data, this is interpreted that investors reduce the confidence in the long -term rise.
Change in long -term expectation
Experts evaluate the reset of the 180 -day option SKEW as a neutral attitude of decision -makers about the future of Bitcoin. A similar development in the previous period took place at the beginning of the previous decline market. Griffin Ardern, manager of options and research department in Blofin, summarizes the current appearance as follows:
“With the recent withdrawal of the market, the expectation of rise in long -term options of Bitcoin has disappeared and the market has become impartial. This indicates that Bitcoin has become difficult to create a long -lasting trend of ascension and that the likelihood of seeing new peaks in the coming months is reduced.”
Ardern also states that this situation was seen in January and February 2022.
Change and Market Dynamics in Investor Strategies
The imbalance of Call and Put options in the option market is seen as an important indicator in the measurement of sensitivity in the market. A positive difference shows that the rise -oriented expectation is dominant, while zero and negative values can reveal that the market is cautious or focused on a decline.
Some corporate investors aimed at selling high -priced Call options and earning additional income for risk protection and reduced the relative price of Call options. The spread of this strategy is also thought to be effective in reducing the expectation of rise in long -term options.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Effects
Last week, the Bitcoin price fell by about 4 percent and approached the old record level. The fact that the rise and non -agricultural employment data in the core PCE index in the USA did not meet the expectations led to an increase in uncertainties in the economic appearance.
Griffin Ardern, supply chain effects began to be reflected in economic data, he said.
“The decline in automobile prices in the last TFE report balances the rise in other products. However, it can be said that the impact of the Pacific to the East of the West Side and that the retailers have started to reflect new costs to the consumer.
These developments are shown as one of the reasons for the neutral attitude of Bitcoin’s long -term options.
According to a report prepared by JPMorgan, Donald Trump’s new tariffs may increase inflation in the US in the second half of the year. Bank analysts say that global core inflation can rise to 3.4 percent on an annual basis.
“Most of the increase in inflation will be seen in the USA and cost pressure will focus here.”
The possibility of an increase in inflation may make it difficult for the US Federal Bank’s interest rate cuts. Donald Trump frequently criticizes the height of existing interest rates. Market analysts are waiting for ISM Service PMI data and July CPI, which will provide more detailed information about the price movements in the service sector, and the EFE.
Responsibility Rejection: The information contained in this article does not contain investment advice. Investors should be aware that crypto currencies carry high volatility and thus risk and carry out their operations in line with their own research.
