Bitcoin price is trading in a tight range, coiled between heavy accumulation and strong resistance. As the price hovers around $114k, both technical and on-chain data suggest an inflection point is near. With demand from long-term holders soaring and short-term momentum indicators showing weakness, the crypto market braces for a decisive move. The $116k level is now the focal point for bulls and bears alike. Join me as I take you through on-chain metrics and analyst views in this write-up.
BTC Cost Basis Heatmap:
Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows a staircase-like pattern between $109k and $116k, filled progressively over the last month. This steady buying pressure illustrates growing investor confidence, especially as dips into this range are consistently absorbed. Meanwhile, the $118k–$120k zone shows little sign of distribution, implying that holders are not willing to exit at these levels, suggesting a “wait-and-hold” mentality.
According to Alva, BTC is in a classic squeeze zone, compressed between stepwise support and a thick resistance wall. Options activity is heating up, indicating at an imminent move. Although recent ETF outflows and miner profit-taking near $117k caused some hesitation, macro narratives like BTCFi adoption and traditional finance interest continue to offer strong tailwinds. The AI warns that if BTC doesn’t reclaim the $116k mark soon, oversold indicators like the CRSI could invite volatility and a swift drop to lower support levels.
Demand from Accumulator Addresses:
CryptoQuant data shows that accumulator addresses are more active than ever in 2025. The 30-day net accumulation has surged past 320k BTC, showing renewed confidence in BTC’s long-term upside. Since May, price action has closely followed the trajectory of accumulator demand. This strong base of buyers provides a safety net, especially if price revisits the $110k–$112k range. Which Glassnode and the AI agent both view as a “brilliant” accumulation zone.
The alignment of increasing long-term demand and layered cost basis support reinforces the argument for an upward breakout, should BTC cross above the $116k threshold.
Michael Pope: Eyes on $115k–$116k Resistance
Crypto analyst Michael Pope highlighted BTC’s recent failure to crack $115k, calling it the “first real resistance.” While the structure looks bullish, a confirmed breakout above $116k is essential to shift momentum. Pope notes that the previous rejection was minor and suggests another attempt is likely. If successful, BTC could swiftly move back into the $118k–$120k range, reigniting talk of a new all-time high.
FAQs
It represents the top of strong on-chain support and could trigger a breakout toward $120k.
It signals growing long-term holder confidence, reinforcing price support on dips.
BTC could revisit $110k-$112k, which analysts view as a strong accumulation opportunity.
