Bitcoin is once again showing signs of entering a strong rally, but this time, the signals are coming from its on-chain data rather than just price action. Bitcoin’s hidden supply is waking up again, and it could mean something big for what’s next.
Verified CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently highlighted fresh signs in Bitcoin’s % Supply Active chart that could tell us where this market is headed next.
So, what’s happening?
Bitcoin Supply Sharply Increased
CryptoQuant’s verified on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. says the share of Bitcoin’s active supply in the past 180 days is starting to rise. When this number goes up, it means coins that were sitting still for months or even years are now moving again.
This usually points to more selling or holders spreading out their coins as prices go higher.
This could mean the market is getting ready for an early wave of selling, which might help push Bitcoin’s next move past $120,000.
Key Supply Activity Trends
Looking back, we can see that big jumps in supply activity often went hand in hand with big price moves. For example, in spring 2024, Bitcoin climbed to about $70,000, and at the same time, supply activity rose to 20%, showing that many long-term holders were taking profits.
A few months later, in December 2024, supply activity rose again to 18% when Bitcoin broke through the key $100,000 mark for the first time.
Now, in June 2025, we see the same trend starting but with one big difference. Even though Bitcoin is steady around $100,000, the latest data shows supply activity has only gone up slightly, from negative levels to about +2.4% in the last 30 days.
Compared to past cycles, this is still low, a sign that many holders are not yet ready to sell big chunks of their stash.
Early Stages of Distribution
Meanwhile, Adler points out that this small rise means we are likely still early in this market cycle. If Bitcoin holds strong and pushes above $120,000, the % Supply Active could slowly climb into the 8%–10% range first, then maybe back to the 18%–20% peaks seen in past big rallies.
As of now, Bitcoin’s price is around $118,176, slightly down in the last 24 hours. But with a market cap near $2.35 trillion, the stage looks set for more action ahead.
