With several high-profile unlocks already underway, July 2025 continues to shape up as one of the most impactful months, with over $1.8 billion in cumulative value scheduled, including the now-completed $323M unlock from SUI earlier this month, the largest of July. According to TokenUnlocks data, unlock activity will peak in the third week of July at nearly $1 billion.
This influx of supply comes at a time of cautious market sentiment and reactive liquidity flows, turning each event into a potential catalyst. From Solana-based meme coins like TRUMP to Layer-2 leaders like Arbitrum (ARB) and modular chains like SUI, the unlock wave offers both risk and short-term trading opportunities.
Official Trump (TRUMP) Token Unlock
Image Source: Cryptorank
Unlock Date: July 18, 2025
Unlock Amount: ~90M TRUMP
Value: ~$455M–$462M
% of Max Supply: ~9%
Category: Creators & CIC Digital 1–4 allocations
President Donald Trump has reportedly added over $620 million to his net worth through cryptocurrency ventures, with the TRUMP token playing a central role. The token, a Solana-based meme coin that once surged on viral hype and political fandom, is now at the centre of a substantial unlock event that could impact price volatility and market sentiment. This unlock marks the first major release of team and contributor tokens, following a 6–12 month cliff. With only 20% of TRUMP’s 1 billion supply currently circulating, the upcoming 9% unlock significantly changes its tokenomics, introducing new liquidity and potential sell pressure.
TRUMPUSDT Price Analysis: Bearish Structure Ahead of Major Unlock
Image Source: Trading View
TRUMP is trading around $8.60, consolidating in a tight range ahead of its $455M token unlock on July 18. Price action remains subdued, with the formation of lower highs since its $11.30 peak in early June.
The Alligator indicators that represent different timeframes and help traders identify when a market is trending, consolidating, or preparing to reverse are fully fanned out in a bearish formation, with the green line (Lips) trailing below the red (Teeth) and blue (Jaw), confirming a persistent downtrend.
The RSI at 38.5, while rising slightly above its signal line at 36.8, suggests weak bullish momentum but still hovers in bearish territory, implying hesitation from buyers.
A breakdown below $8.00 could accelerate losses to $7.50, with $6.90 as the next major demand zone.
Conversely, a close above $9.20 is needed to invalidate this structure and target $10.50. Until then, the unlock event and broader meme coin fatigue weigh heavily on sentiment.
Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock – Strong L2, Soft Price Structure?
Source: tokenomist.ai
Unlock Date: July 16, 2025
Unlock Amount: ~92.65M ARB
Value: ~$30.3M
% of Max Supply: ~1.17%
Category: Team & Advisor allocation
Image Source: Defilama
Arbitrum remains the dominant force among Ethereum Layer-2s, currently holding over $2.4 billion in TVL—representing approximately 55–60% of all L2 value locked, as per DeFiLlama.
June saw explosive growth across Arbitrum DeFi protocols like Uniswap, Fluid, and SushiSwap, collectively drawing 2.4M+ users and sustaining high DEX liquidity.
Yet, despite strong fundamentals, the upcoming unlock for team and advisors introduces a fresh token supply that could dampen short-term price action.
ARBUSD Price Analysis: Stalled Recovery with Bearish Tilt
Image Source: Trading View
Arbitrum (ARB) trades at $0.33, consolidating below the $0.34 resistance after multiple failed attempts to push higher. Price structure remains fragile, with no clear higher highs since the late June bounce. The Williams %R sits at –67, indicating bearish momentum creeping back in as buyers struggle to sustain pressure.
Support rests near $0.310, with a breakdown risking a slide toward $0.285. If bears gain traction post-unlock, deeper moves toward $0.250 could follow.
On the upside, ARB must close above $0.342 to signal a trend reversal. A breakout there could pave the way to $0.375 and possibly $0.41 if momentum revives alongside strong L2 narrative traction.
Other Upcoming Token Unlocks to Watch – July 2025
1. ZRO (LayerZero) – July 20
LayerZero, the newly launched omnichain interoperability protocol, is set to unlock 24.68M ZRO tokens (~$46.5M)—its first major post-airdrop release, expanding circulating supply by over 2.5% within weeks of listing.
2. AVAIL – July 23
AVAIL, the modular data availability chain founded by a Polygon co-creator, will unlock 990.6M tokens (~$23.7M)—a staggering 9.2% of its total supply, potentially triggering volatility in the under-the-radar L1 space.
3. XDAO – July 21
XDAO, a rising DAO infrastructure protocol, will release 6.44M tokens worth over $330M, a disproportionately large unlock that could create sharp price swings given its low market cap and liquidity.
4. MOCA – July 11
MOCA, a Web3 culture and GameFi governance token, is scheduled to unlock 241.72M tokens this week, aimed at community and contributor rewards, injecting liquidity into a niche but growing ecosystem.
5. PLUME – July 21
Plume Network, focused on real-world asset tokenization, is unlocking 239.8M tokens (~$21M) just ahead of its mainnet launch phase, highlighting investor interest in the RWA narrative
