Bitcoin traders aren’t just watching the Fed’s rate decision this week — they’re zeroed in on the dot plot, a chart that could hint at future rate cuts. While the rate is widely expected to stay the same, what Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals next could shake things up. Right now, Bitcoin’s stuck in a tight range, with short sellers crowding in and big holders quietly buying.
With ETF flows looking weak and funding rates negative, most traders are playing it safe. But if Powell hints at cuts, it could trigger a sharp move higher, possibly pushing Bitcoin above $112K. A hawkish tone, on the other hand, might send it sliding back toward $100K.
All Eyes on the Dot Plot
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%–4.50% range. The official decision is due Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
However, this part is largely priced in. The real action lies in the Fed’s dot plot, a chart that shows where each policymaker sees interest rates heading in the coming months and years. If the dot plot signals fewer rate cuts than expected, it could reinforce the “higher for longer” narrative, strengthening the dollar and putting downward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
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Why Bitcoin Traders Care
Bitcoin’s price has already cooled after touching highs above $100,000, and a hawkish Fed outlook could deepen that consolidation. XBTO, a crypto trading firm, says traders are bracing for volatility if the dot plot reflects less dovish expectations.
According to analyst Matteo Greco from Fineqia, 2025 rate cut expectations have already been slashed from 100 basis points to just 50, and could dip even further to 25 basis points if global tensions continue.
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Long-Term Impact Still Bullish
Interestingly, a more aggressive Fed stance not only weighs on crypto in the short term, but it also adds long-term fuel. Higher rates increase U.S. debt servicing costs, worsening the fiscal outlook. That dynamic could enhance Bitcoin’s role as a hedge alongside gold, especially as inflation and global uncertainty remain in focus.
For now, patience is the name of the game. Until the dot plot and Powell’s comments are revealed, crypto markets are likely to remain cautious, watching for any shift that could either freeze or fire up Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin to Jump 120%?
Even though the Bitcoin prices are in a tight spot due to various factors. But technically, CryptoQuant highlights a key Bitcoin metric that may signal its next big move. According to analyst @oro_crypto, if Bitcoin continues to follow the typical growth pattern seen in the third year of its cycle, it could rise by around 120% in 2025. This suggests that, despite short-term volatility, the broader trend could still favor strong upside ahead.
