Today’s downturn has left crypto marketers wondering about the near future of the industry and the possibility of an altseason. Amidst all the hustle and bustle, analyst Cryptex Guy in an X post talks about whether we will see the altseason again.
In this write-up, we take you through the proponent’s thesis, on the altcoin season, BTC dominance, stablecoins, Ethereum’s stance, and more.
BTC Dominance + Stablecoin Mix:
The BTC.D + USDT.D + USDC.D combo chart shared by the analyst highlights how much money sits outside altcoins. Historically, this metric approaching the 74–75% red zone has been a trigger point for sharp altcoin rallies due to rejection from that overhead resistance.
Currently sitting at 70.87%, a final push into that zone, followed by rejection, as seen in the past, could mean a capital rotation into altcoins. Notably, a break below the ascending cyan trendline would confirm the end of Bitcoin’s capital dominance run, making way for a full-fledged Altseason, similar to the mini alt-run we’ve seen in Q4 2024.
BTC Dominance on Lower Time Frame:
On the 4H chart, BTC Dominance has broken out of a rising wedge, a classically bearish pattern for BTC.D. Since altcoins are inversely correlated to BTC.D, this breakout could lead to a short-term relief rally in altcoins.
Now, BTC.D appears to be retesting the wedge’s upper boundary. Should this retest be rejected, we can expect a quick 5–10% upside candles on strong altcoins. This aligns with Ethereum’s recent $1000+ surge, which injected $138B into the altcoin ecosystem.
Ethereum’s Retest & the Bigger Altseason Picture
On higher time frames, Ethereum has reclaimed a significant multi-year trendline, known as the Bull-Bear boundary. A successful reclaim would boost investor confidence and could catalyze sustained inflows into altcoins.
The altcoin market is also forming a bullish structure. If this pattern holds, it would set the stage for Altseason 2025, with many altcoins potentially seeing 2–3x gains from current levels. This scenario mirrors the patterns from 2023 and 2024, when capital rotation into alts delivered broad market upside.
Also read our Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2025, 2026-2030
FAQs
If BTC.D gets rejected from the 74–75% zone and breaks the trendline, Altseason could commence in late 2025, as historical patterns and technical structures align.
Ethereum acts as a capital gateway. Its successful reclaim of major support boosts market-wide confidence, triggering rotations into other Layer 1s and alt sectors.
Currently, altcoin prices are still suppressed, offering early entry opportunities. As BTC.D approaches resistance, the risk-to-reward ratio for alts becomes increasingly favorable.
