A popular crypto analyst predicts a massive surge in Bitcoin and altcoins as the U.S. Federal Reserve is now 99.9% likely to cut interest rates this month.
Crypto trader and market analyst Cyclop believes the rate cut could push Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $130,000, followed by a large-cap altcoin rally and the start of a full-blown altseason. However, he cautions that short-term volatility is likely during this period.
Fed Rate Cut Almost Certain
According to Cyclop, current market indicators show a 99.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in June 2025.
Recent U.S. economic data supports this claim:
- May CPI rose to 321.465, up from 320.795 in April.
- Inflation rate increased slightly from 2.3% to 2.4%, still below the 3% mark in January.
- The unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.2% for the past three months.
Why Rate Cuts Are Bullish for Crypto
Historically, interest rate cuts have been bullish catalysts for crypto markets. Lower rates boost liquidity, reduce borrowing costs, and encourage risk-on investment behavior, leading to:
- Bitcoin price surges
- Capital flowing into large-cap altcoins
- The start of altseason
“Cheaper borrowing and rising liquidity create a perfect storm for crypto rallies,” notes Cyclop.
Past Rate Cuts and Bitcoin Price Trends
In early 2023, after a significant rate cut, Bitcoin surged by over 20% within weeks. But not all rate cuts guarantee bullish outcomes.
In 2024, a minor 25 basis point cut led to a 6% drop in BTC shortly after, highlighting the importance of broader macro conditions.
3 Key Triggers for Bitcoin Bull Run
According to Cyclop, the bullish impact of a Fed rate cut on Bitcoin and altcoins will depend on three key conditions:
- Inflation drops closer to 2%
- Unemployment rises above 4.3%-4.4%
- Clarity around Trump’s proposed tariffs
Currently, inflation is at 2.4%, and unemployment sits at 4.2%. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs are still being reviewed by a U.S. appeals court. A final decision is expected after July 31, but reports hint at a potential deal with China on rare earths and new tariff agreements with other nations.
Bitcoin and Altseason Price Forecast
If these conditions align with the Fed rate cut, Cyclop sees Bitcoin climbing to $130,000 in 2025. He also predicts that altseason could peak in November or December. However, he warns that short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, even if long-term sentiment remains bullish.
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FAQs
Slightly rising inflation (2.4%) and stable unemployment (4.2%) below key thresholds suggest the Fed might proceed with rate cuts. This is generally bullish for crypto as it encourages risk-on investment behavior due to increased liquidity.
Despite bullish long-term predictions, rate cuts often induce short-term volatility. This is due to profit-taking, leveraged positions being wiped out, and uncertainty around market expectations, leading to rapid price swings.
Yes, clarity around Trump’s proposed tariffs and any potential trade deals with China (especially on rare earths) could significantly influence the crypto market. Positive resolutions tend to support risk assets like crypto by reducing global economic uncertainty.
