Bitcoin stayed on its upward path this past week, even as a few warning signs started flashing under the surface. With institutional demand still solid and retail activity cooling off, the market seems to be moving into a distribution phase. Market analyst Axel Adler Jr has explained what the latest on-chain data and market signals reveal about where BTC might head next.
Active Wallets See a Drop
One of the more eye-catching stats from the week was a clear decline in Bitcoin’s active wallet count. Over the last seven days, the number of active addresses fell by 6.56%, dropping from 8.62 million to about 8.06 million.
This kind of reduction often points to retail traders pulling back, perhaps locking in profits or stepping aside from short-term speculation. It’s a classic sign that the market is consolidating, leaving room for the bigger players to take control.
Bitcoin’s Hashrate Slips Slightly, Network Stays Secure
Bitcoin’s network hashrate experienced a minor dip of around 1.4% this week. While the hashrate fell from roughly 864.8 EH/s to 852.7 EH/s, the move is seen as routine, likely tied to seasonal maintenance or miner reshuffling.
The important takeaway is that network security remains rock-solid despite the small fluctuation — nothing concerning here for long-term holders.
Market Cap Climbs as Bitcoin Hits New Local High
Bitcoin’s price edged up 3.48% over the week, closing in on $107,839.92. That pushed the total crypto market capitalization up by 4.5%, surpassing $2.14 trillion.
The steady price growth has allowed BTC to test and set new local highs, driven in large part by consistent institutional inflows, even as retail engagement cools.
No Major Peak Yet, But Momentum Is Slowing
Other important market cycle metrics, like the Bitcoin Peak Signal — which has historically called tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — suggest the market hasn’t reached its final bull market phase just yet. Indicators like the MRPI (price-to-realized price ratio for long-term holders) and VDD Ratio (measuring the movement of older coins) are rising but still sit below historical peak levels.
This implies that while caution is warranted, the current cycle still has room to run before topping out.
Looking Ahead: Fall 2025 Remains the Big Cycle Target
According to Bitcoin’s halving cycle fractal model, the final signals for this cycle’s peak aren’t expected until fall 2025. Based on this long-term model, the next major correction might arrive later this year, but for now, the structure of the bull market appears intact.
The key level to watch right now is $107K. Holding above that would confirm the bull trend’s strength. A drop below it, though, could open the door to a deeper correction before institutional buyers step back in.
