The US and China agreed to reduce customs duties between the two countries for 90 days. This development significantly affected the market expectations of the US in 2025 for the possibility of economic contraction. According to the latest data, this possibility fell to the lowest level in recent months.
US recession expectations
In the past weeks, the US has approached 70 percent in 2025 in the markets in 2025, while this rate decreased to 40 percent after the agreement. Market commentators say that the decrease in trade tension between the two economies is effective in this decline. According to the agreement, the US reduced customs duties on Chinese goods from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China drew the tax from 125 percent to 10 percent in products imported from the USA.
This agreement indicates that the trade conflict that has been going on for several months and causing global uncertainties has softened. The positive atmosphere in the markets led to a significant decrease in recession expectations.
The agreement was shaped by the delegation chaired by US Treasury Minister Scott Bessent during the high -level talks in Geneva, and China was represented by Deputy Prime Minister He LiFeng. The negative results that even the concern of recession have on crypto currencies are known and the elimination of this possibility is very supportive for the crypto.
US officials announced that they aim to establish a balanced trade relationship instead of economic separation. Bessent said that previous taxes adversely affect trade for both sides and adopted a more constructive approach with the new agreement. Previous taxes have de facto narrowed the trade volume by acting as an embargo function.
At the beginning of the year, the probability of recession was measured as 71 percent, which pointed to a period in which high rates, inflation pressure, supply chain problems and global uncertainties felt. Mark Zandi, a Moody’s, warned for a contraction in the United States at that time. This warning led to a decline in crypto asset prices.
Mark Zandi: “The possibility of recession in the US has caused serious sensitivity in the markets.”
Reaction of crypto and financial markets
Following the agreement, a positive atmosphere dominated the financial markets. While the increase in Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices was seen, the value of leading crypto beings (eg BTC) rapidly increased. The BTC price was at the level of $ 102,894 with a slight decline at the time of the article was prepared, but a general increase was observed in the risk appetite of investors.
In technical indicators, it is emphasized that the recovery continues, especially the optimism in the market can trigger new policy debates and other countries with similar commercial relaxation steps.
Following the developments, it is seen that global investors and market actors closely follow how this relaxation will affect economic appearance and policy processes. Such balancing approaches, especially among the major economies, prepare the ground for a decrease in recession concerns. The trade agreement is reported to increase confidence in the markets and that investors are willing to take more risks. This positive atmosphere, arising from the cooperation between the US and China, led to mobility both in the classical markets and in the ecosystem of digital existence. In the coming period, it may continue to be important elements that determine the economic appearance, how similar commercial softening will be handled and developed by other countries.
Responsibility Rejection: The information contained in this article does not contain investment advice. Investors should be aware that crypto currencies carry high volatility and thus risk and carry out their operations in line with their own research.
