For today’s meeting, no one expected Powell to say great things to support the crypto. As a matter of fact, it was. We are in a complete environment of uncertainty, and as Powell said “uncertainty ,, investors in the risk markets became goose bumps. Crypto Coins He doesn’t go to a good place in the short term.
Fed and Crypto Coins
Powell It is almost as if we are “independent”, Trump’s call to download interest rates today, “We will see and see the effects of tariffs” replied. Although Trump did not take direct interlocutors, the FED President said that the risks increased due to the uncertainty of the current environment. This is Crypto Coins It is not good for risk markets that include. Something that reflects the potential of further fall.
If the FED is going to enter a new path, it gives its signals and always avoids surprises. We haven’t seen that the Fed has taken surprise steps for a long time except last year’s 50BP discount (25BP expectation). At this meeting, we would like to see that at the point where it was necessary, “Fed could make an interest rate reduction due to the conditions caused by the tariffs”. This did not happen.
Powell said we will expect clearer data that confirms it, even though we see relaxation signals in employment clearly. This indicates that there may be no discount in June and even at the end of July, even at the end of the meeting. While he said that there would be a delay in inflation targets for the next year, Powell actually said, iz We are not considering much interest reduction this year ”.
Interest rate reduction It is essential that we see extremely clear and bad data on employment for the revival of his expectation, and even witness the confirmation of the next May data in June. The latest statements contained details in the style of iz We can respond quickly to change ”, but“ policy is not tight ”.
Crypto Coins All this means that we will probably see more in the future.
Crypto coins will fall
The crypto has been a long -standing moisture. It will not be surprising that we see BTC test for $ 92 thousand on top of today’s statements. Trump President Powell’s statements said new things that undermine the expectations of reconciliation for tariffs. This creates an equation as follows.
- Tariff discussions will continue until July. (The date on which the 90 -day pause will end)
- The Fed will protect the interest policy it says it is not extremely tight in order not to take the wrong step in an uncertain environment brought by tariffs. Will avoid interest rate cuts.
- We will begin to see the effects of tariffs on inflation more clearly and the Fed will want to focus on the inflation wing from the binary target.
- If there is no agreement with China in July, concerns about inflation will be fueled and the Fed will probably continue to wait by saying that inflation is inflation, which is probably what they need to focus on the excuse of agreements (relying on the employment of countries that will produce in the USA).
In this equation Crypto Coins The negative process will probably continue for several reasons.
- Fed does not reduce interest rates.
- Tariffs bring a new global trade system.
- As of mid -May, corporate (individual investors, whales, corporate trading companies, etc.) will enter the holiday mode as the volumes will remain weak until the end of July (August). Risk appetite weakness will be maintained.
Is it always bad things? No, let me tell you a little bit of good things.
- Trump With this move beyond the bluff, he can sign tariff agreements by resisting despite the potential of the economy.
- We see terrible data that employment is weakened rapidly, and the Fed may quickly have to go to interest rate cuts.
- Similar to what we see in the US bonds at the beginning of April, the fluctuation continues for a longer period of time and may have to take the expansion steps.
- In November, Altcoin ETF approvals revenue and we have another rise catalyst for crypto.
The only thing that is certain is the fact that we will experience and see all this. We don’t have the ability to see the future, and these are the ways we can go. The first of these ways is that high risks are hosting and when we enter the second road, the investors can jump to the train rapidly, as the volume weakening of the excessively in a few months and the graphs that make up the deeper bottom seem to be possible.
Next Fed interest rate decision It will be after 41 days and 22 hours 30 minutes. Cme The data is possible to discount 95.3 %in September. When I came to the end of the BTC article, it went down to 96 thousand dollars as expected. (Can crypto money markets full of surprises start a rise in the midst of this negativity?
Responsibility Rejection: The information contained in this article does not contain investment advice. Investors should be aware that crypto currencies carry high volatility and thus risk and carry out their operations in line with their own research.
