US Recession Looming in 2025? Experts Warn the Trade War Could Push Us There!

The talk of a possible US recession in 2025 is getting louder, and it’s all linked to the ongoing trade war between the US and China that many of us have been hearing about for months. Experts are saying that if the situation doesn’t change soon, we could be in for a massive recession in 2025.

Increasing Odds of a Recession in 2025 

Since Trump took office for the second time, the US economy has been stable for a while now, but it now faces serious trouble. Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo Global Management, recently warned that the US could experience a recession by 2025, mainly due to the trade war with China. 

In an interview, Slok explained that if the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods stay as high as they are now, up to 145%, the US could face a 4% drop in GDP, leading to a two-quarter economic contraction. 

The chances of a US recession in 2025 are rising, as the Polymarket now estimates a 56% chance of a recession, and these numbers are only going up. However, this would be a major setback for the economy, affecting businesses and everyday people alike.

With no clear moves from the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the US could be heading toward an economic storm, and these numbers are only getting higher. 

Impact on Business and Jobs: Are We Feeling It Yet?

It’s not just about the 56% possibility of recession; the effects of this trade war are already being felt in the real world. Major retailers like Walmart and Target are bracing for supply shortages. 

And the biggest reason behind these shortages is that tariffs have made it harder to get goods into the US. Worse, reports are showing that cargo shipments have dropped by a massive 60%. This could lead to shortages and even layoffs, which would make life harder for a lot of Americans.

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Small Businesses Are at Risk 

It’s not just the big companies that are struggling. Small businesses, especially in manufacturing, are also feeling the pain. Tariffs are driving up costs, and many of these businesses are already at risk of going bankrupt. If things don’t change, more small businesses might be forced to close.

Can We Avoid a Recession?

It’s still unclear if the US will go into a full recession in 2025. But one thing is certain: the trade war with China is having a big impact. If the tariffs stay, we might see more job losses and higher costs.