Bitcoin dipped 1.41% to $83,437 after Trump’s tariff bombshell rattled markets. With a 24-hour range between $88,466 and $82,182, traders are bracing for more turbulence ahead! But Arthur Hayes is keeping a close eye on a crucial level. He warns that if BTC holds above $76.5K until April 15—U.S. tax day—the market could stabilize. But beyond the short-term bloodbath, Hayes sees a massive move coming, predicting Bitcoin could hit $250K by the end of 2025.
Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s current volatility is linked to “Liberation Day,” likely referring to tax-related sell-offs.
The Fed’s Role in the Bitcoin Boom
Hayes believes President Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell into restarting money printing. His latest blog post, The BBC, argues that Powell will have no choice but to shift back to quantitative easing (QE) to finance the U.S. government’s growing debt. With fewer foreign buyers for U.S. Treasuries, especially from China, Hayes says the Fed and U.S. banks will have to step in.
His math is simple: if the economy grows at 5% (3% real GDP and 2% inflation), but the government keeps borrowing 3% of GDP every year, debt piles up faster than the economy grows. Hayes warns that without lower yields or a major buyer for Treasuries, the debt-to-GDP ratio will spiral out of control.
Powell’s Dilemma: Hold Firm or Give In?
While Powell has resisted easing so far, Hayes points to signs of submission. The Fed cut rates in September 2024 to help Kamala Harris during the campaign, and Powell recently hinted at slowing the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. Hayes argues that this is effectively Treasury QE—exactly what Bitcoin thrives on.
Plus, Bessent suggested that relaxing post-2008 banking rules could free up billions for Treasury purchases. The Fed has already slowed its roll-off of Treasuries from $25B to $5B per month a $240B annual liquidity shift. If the Fed fully pivots to QE, Hayes expects even more cash flooding the market, driving Bitcoin higher.
Bitcoin’s Path to Six Figures and Beyond
Hayes compares this setup to gold’s 30% surge after QE1 in 2008-2010. He argues that Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign asset, will react even more explosively to increased fiat liquidity. With BTC already rebounding from $76.5K, he believes the next stop is six figures, with $250K in sight by year-end. According to his forecast, BTC hits $110K before it ever revisits $76.5K. If the Fed turns on the money printer, Hayes says the Bitcoin rocket is ready to launch.
