Bernstein Predicts Over 1M BTC by 2033

Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset—it’s becoming a core part of corporate strategies, and no company has embraced it quite like Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy. The firm has been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, and according to a new report from Bernstein, its holdings could skyrocket to over 1 million BTC by 2033 if market conditions remain favorable.

A Massive Bitcoin Accumulation Plan

Currently, Strategy holds 506,137 BTC, already making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. But Bernstein’s bullish forecast suggests the company could more than double that, reaching 1,013,000 BTC—equivalent to 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply. This projection assumes Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and eventually $1 million by 2033.

To fund this aggressive expansion, Strategy would likely rely on the capital markets, potentially increasing its debt from $11 billion to a staggering $100 billion while raising $84 billion in equity. The analysts believe that lower interest rates and strong investor demand would be key to making this plan feasible.

Where BTC Stands!

While Bitcoin is still below $90K, the best recovery level as of now is seen as the $90,000 level where the market will get interested again, with options market makers expected to influence price swings. Data from Deribit shows that market makers are “short gamma” at this strike, meaning they’ll need to buy when BTC rises and sell when it drops, adding to market turbulence. Despite this, BloFin’s Griffin Ardern suggests that there is a possibility of a bullish move ahead. With Friday’s options settlement, BTC could stay quite volatile around this key level.

What Happens if Bitcoin Slows Down?

Not everyone believes Bitcoin will keep going up without setbacks. If Bitcoin reaches a peak in 2025 and then starts a long decline, Strategy might stop buying more BTC and hold around 514,800 BTC, which is just 2.6% of the total supply. In this case, the company might even have to sell some of its Bitcoin to handle its growing debt, which would still climb but to a smaller amount—around $51 billion.

Investors Still See Growth Potential

Despite the risks, Bernstein remains confident in Strategy’s long-term position, maintaining an “outperform” rating and setting a $600 price target—representing a 75% upside from current levels. The firm’s valuation model applies a 2x EV/sales multiple to Strategy’s software segment and a 55% premium on its Bitcoin holdings, in line with its average market valuation since pivoting to Bitcoin in 2020.

Meanwhile, Strategy continues its Bitcoin buying spree. Between March 17 and March 23, the company added another 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million, further solidifying its commitment to Bitcoin as its primary treasury asset. Whether Bitcoin soars or faces challenges, Strategy is going all in on its bet that digital gold is here to stay.

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