Crypto Market Crash Incoming? Bitcoin at $80K Faces Trump Tariff Test

Bitcoin, after reaching a record high of $109K, is now struggling at $80K, sitting below a key support level. With Trump’s potential second term and new tariffs disrupting global markets, investors are wondering: will history repeat itself? In 2018, during Trump’s first presidency, Bitcoin dropped 72% under similar conditions. Could the same happen again, or is Bitcoin strong enough to break the pattern?

As the government explores using existing Bitcoin reserves, the crypto market is back at a critical turning point.

Experts Warn: Bitcoin’s Bull Run Could Follow a Familiar Pattern

Analysts at 10x Research believe the market is repeating past cycles. They warn that previous bull runs have started with extreme hype, followed by sharp corrections—something investors should be wary of.

Crypto cycles often begin with big promises and rising optimism, making it seem like prices will keep climbing. But once the excitement fades, reality sets in. 10x Research points out that in 2017, Ripple (XRP) became the second-largest cryptocurrency, yet by 2021, it couldn’t reclaim that position. Ethereum was the highlight of the last bull run thanks to DeFi and NFTs, but in 2025, the hype has shifted to meme coins and Solana.

Solana and Trump’s Meme Coin Struggle

Most cryptocurrencies have failed to impress this year. Solana is down 59% from its peak and is now testing support in the $120-$130 range. If it breaks below this level, further declines could follow.

Trump’s Solana-based meme coin, TRUMP, has also taken a massive hit, falling to $10.50—an 85% drop from its January peak of $73.43. This decline matches the broader market selloff, as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even traditional stock indices face losses.

Institutions Win, Retail Investors Struggle

A common pattern in crypto cycles is how big institutions profit while smaller investors lose out. In past bull runs, institutions made money by trading the interest rate gaps between DeFi and traditional finance. This time, they are profiting from differences between Bitcoin’s spot and futures markets, while everyday traders struggle to compete.

How This Cycle Is Different

Unlike 2018, this cycle has a key difference—Bitcoin ETFs. Large institutional inflows into ETFs have helped balance some economic pressures. Even as Trump’s tariffs shake markets and strengthen the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin has managed to hold key support levels. Exchange balances are at a six-year low, showing strong accumulation, and large Bitcoin withdrawals suggest growing confidence among investors.

However, crypto analyst Lark Davis warns against assuming Trump’s policies will be good for crypto. He argues that Trump’s previous administration was tough on the industry, and while his current policies are causing short-term market instability, they could eventually set the stage for a major bull run.

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Market Corrections Are Normal!

On the other hand, Rekt Capital highlights that Bitcoin corrections are a natural part of every bull cycle. In this run alone, BTC has seen multiple pullbacks, with the latest reaching -28 %, reinforcing the idea that dips are expected in strong uptrends.

Crypto analyst Michael Nadeau highlights that Bitcoin’s returns are shrinking with each cycle. On-chain data shows a clear trend—long-term holder MVRV peaks have been consistently lower, and Bitcoin’s cycle gains have dropped from 80x in 2017 to 20x in 2021 and just 6.6x in 2025. While it’s uncertain whether the cycle has peaked, the data suggests the market may be near a top.

With past trends pointing to a possible repeat of 2018, Bitcoin remains at a crucial stage. The rise of ETFs and increasing institutional adoption provide some support, but market cycles remain unpredictable.

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