After the Bitcoin halving, it was speculated that Bitcoin would surge and mark new highs, followed by a strong Altseason. The BTC price surged above the much-awaited milestone at $100K and hit the ATH above $109K, but altcoins stayed behind. Other than some, like Solana, BinanceCoin, and some newly launched tokens, no cryptos maintained a steep ascending trend. Moreover, the data from Glassnode suggests the altcoins have largely decoupled from the BTC price rally after the market cap decreased by more than $234 billion in the past fortnight.
The memecoins have squeezed out most of the liquidity as the top altcoins struggle to grab some. On the other hand, the altcoin market dominance has been declining since the start of 2024 and tested June 2023 lows and the lowest point in the past 4 years. A similar thing happened during the last cycle, but the decline was quicker and more severe.
Source: X
The big move up in altcoin dominance did not happen until 2021, which was the post-halving year, much similar to the current trend. By then, BTC had traded up 50% to 100% from its previous all-time high and continued to head higher from there. Meanwhile, the current market dynamics appear to be much more diverse than before, as the altcoins, till now, have been performing worse compared to the previous cycle.
Will Altseason be Delayed to 2026?
Total market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is trying to heal its wounds after a week of record liquidation. While the range holds above $850 billion, which makes it an important range to hold, the market capitalization including Ethereum appears to be more weaker. Hence, the altcoins do not seem to be stronger as they have not yet demonstrated massive recovery.
Regardless of this, a popular analyst, Moustache, does not believe that the Altseason is cancelled as the levels continue to consolidate above the pivotal support.
The total market capitalization excluding BTC is staying strong above the trend line, which has turned into a strong support. After breaking above the descending broadening wedge, the levels are correcting and hence a rebound seems to be inevitable. Moreover, the analyst believes the upcoming altseason could be more monstrous than that of 2014-1028.
