Is the Bull Run Losing Steam?

Bitcoin’s recent price action tells a story of resilience mixed with caution. After briefly crossing the much-anticipated $100,000 mark, it pulled back, reflecting BTC’s struggle to keep its foot down. Glassnode, a prominent data provider, has made a significant revelation, unlike previous bull runs, this cycle isn’t about wild surges and crashes; instead, it’s showing a more controlled pace, with the long-term holder staying strong. Here’s more insight on this changing trend, and what made it differ!

Why This Bull Run Feels Different

In past cycles, Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed after hitting new all-time highs, fueled by explosive demand and extreme volatility. But this time, the Realized HODL (RHODL) ratio reveals a shift—new demand is coming in bursts rather than in waves, and the wealth held in older coins is significantly lower. This suggests that while interest is there, it’s not as aggressive as before.

Volatility, too, has taken a back seat. While previous bull markets saw Bitcoin’s price swings hit over 80% to 100%, this cycle has been relatively calm, with volatility staying under 50%. It seems Bitcoin is maturing, trading more like a traditional asset with structured price moves rather than dramatic surges. 

If we see the trend in 2024, Bitcoin touched its first ATH in March nearly 2 months after ETFs approval and one month prior to halving. The bullish scene is already set as Utah became the first U.S. state to pass a bill allowing public funds to be invested in crypto, soon other states will follow suit. Adding to this, investors like Robert Kiyosaki buying bitcoin despite the downturn show how safe it is to invest in Bitcoin rather than traditional assets. This shows good times are nearing for Bitcoin if it manages to stay strong in the changing global scene

Key Price Levels to Watch

Right now, Bitcoin is hovering around key support levels. If it manages to stay above $95,869, it could bounce back and retest the $100,000 milestone. Breaking this psychological barrier might trigger a new wave of buying, pushing the price even higher. But if Bitcoin falls below $95,869, there’s a risk it could drop further to around $93,625. This could cause panic selling, as investors rush to cut their losses, leading to more downward pressure on the price.

In short, Bitcoin’s journey this cycle isn’t about explosive gains overnight. It’s a slower, steadier climb, with both opportunities and risks along the way. While many fear further dip, many analysts see this as a bigger change to buy Bitcoin below $100K. Analysts like PlanB highlight that Bitcoin’s gains typically occur during red periods, spanning from 6 months before to 18 months after a halving. Currently, in a red period, he suggests there are 9 more bullish months ahead (Feb–Oct).