Arthur Hayes Predicts 30% Decline, Then $250K Surge

Since the political shift in the United States, the Bitcoin market has experienced an impressive surge of 51.11%. On December 5, 2024, the market achieved the milestone of $100K. Currently, the BTC price stands at $102,517.99. However, BitMEX co-founder arthur hayes arthur hayes Arthur Hayes is a Bitcoin advocate and fintech pioneer, best known as the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, a leading cryptocurrency trading platform. Launched in 2014, BitMEX has traded trillions in Bitcoin and other digital assets. Hayes, a former Deutsche Bank and Citigroup derivatives trader, became interested in Bitcoin in 2013 after reading Satoshi Nakamoto’s white papers. He stepped down as CEO of BitMEX in 2020 following regulatory challenges, including being the first crypto exchange charged under the Bank Secrecy Act. Hayes is recognized as the youngest African American crypto billionaire.
Details
Organization: BitMexLocation: Hong KongEducation: Bachelor of Science in Economics, Finance from the University of Pennsylvania and Bachelor of Science in Economics and finance from The Wharton SchoolSkills: Trading and Swaps
Experience:
Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom from Dec 2022 – PresentCo-Founder at 100x Group from Oct 2020 – PresentCo-founder and CEO at 100x Group from Jul 2019- Oct 2020CEO at BitMEX from Jan 2014 – Oct 2020Delta One Trader (Associate) at Citi from Jun 2011 – May 2013Associate at Deutsche Bank from Jul 2008 – Jun 2011Synthetic Equity Trader at Deutsche Bank from Jun 2008 – Jun 2011
FAQ’s
1. When was Bitmex founded?BitMEX was Launched in 2014.
2. What other roles does Arthur Hayes hold?After BitMEX, Hayes became the Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom EntrepreneurInvestorChief Executive OfficerTrader in an essay named ‘The Ugly’, predicts that the BTC market could drop by at least 30%, pointing out the similarities between the economic conditions of the current market and those of the late 2021 market.

Expressing his optimistic outlook about the long-term potential of Bitcoin, he opines that after the crash the market could rebound to a peak of $250,000. Let’s dive deep for more details. Ready? 

Bitcoin Could Drop Before Rising to New Highs 

Hayes claims that there are a lot of similarities between the economic conditions of the current market and those of the late 2021 market.

On November 10, 2021, the market touched a yearly peak of $69,106.40. However, between November 11 and December 31, the market declined by at least 30.96%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the quarterly return rate declined from 25.5% to 5.60%.

Hayes predicts that BTC will drop to $70,000 – $75,000. Expressing his optimistic view about BTC’s long-term future, he forecasts that after the brief pullback, the market will reach as high as $250,000. 

Why Bitcoin Could Pull Back? 

In order to justify his argument about the potential pullback in the BTC market, Hayes highlights some key factors, like tightening of liquidity by major central banks (such as the US, China and Japan), rising bond yields and growing economic and political uncertainty in prominent economies. 

Hayes’ Two Bitcoin Buying Strategies 

Hayes shares at least two BTC strategies. Firstly, he states that he will consider the buyback option if the price of Bitcoin drops below the range of $75,000. Secondly, he asserts that if the price of BTC breaks above $110,000 with high volume, he will go ahead with the buyback option.   

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Altcoins Could Be Hit Harder Than Bitcoin 

Hayes warns that if the Bitcoin market crashes, the altcoin market could fall even more. Meanwhile, he highlights that a big altcoin liquidation could be a buying opportunity. 

Arthur Hayes believes that while Bitcoin might see a 30% drop, the long-term outlook remains bullish. He expects BTC to hit $250,000, but warns of economic challenges ahead. His strategy focuses on buying below $75,000 or above $110,000 with strong momentum.

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