As Bitcoin hovers between $90,000 and $95,000, down over 10% from its recent all-time high of over $100,000 level, there is a growing difference between traders, who expect another decline based on technical analysis, and the long-term investors, who believe that the bull run is far from over.
David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, which provides asset management services to crypto investors, shared this perspective. Notably, his firm works with high-net-worth individuals and counts Cardano’s CEO, Charles Hoskinson, among its clients.
“In 14 years of owning bitcoin, I’ve never seen a dichotomy like this,” Siemer noted in an interview with Coindesk. “The traders are all worried and nervous and hedged, fully neutral or worse. And the long-term people are all super bullish,” he added.
Further, Siemer believes there’s a strong chance Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this year and thinks it could hit $1 million per coin eventually, though not in the near future. He adds that many smart, well-connected people are also very optimistic, and significant developments are expected in the next six months than most people realize.
Developments Coming Up
Siemer noted that several countries, including the U.S., Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and some European nations are planning significant steps to support crypto in the coming year. These moves are expected to benefit their private sectors. Siemer also notes that trust in governments, like in Japan and Singapore, makes crypto regulations more impactful there.
He also highlighted that the growing success of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, is pushing global financial institutions to create new products to compete, such as multi-token yield funds. Siemer also shared that the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs beat global Bitcoin ETPs with high fees. He believes regulators will be supportive, and the EU may make crypto rules more favorable.
The Bitcoin Reserve
Siemer believes there is a high chance of new strategic Bitcoin reserves being created, with several countries likely to do so, even if the U.S. does not. He mentioned that Wave is in talks with seven U.S. states, including Texas, Ohio, and Wyoming, about creating reserves.
As for the federal government, Siemer estimates a slightly better than 50-50 chance, given that it already owns nearly $19 billion in Bitcoin. He suggests that the government could simply hold onto this Bitcoin, which would be more acceptable than purchasing more.
Long Term Outlook Remains Positive
Recently, Grayscale noted that Bitcoin’s price outlook remains “structurally bullish” despite temporary headwinds from macroeconomic data. Grayscale’s head of Research noted that Bitcoin seems to be held back by strength in the US dollar, which is rising due to more hawkish Fed policy and the threat of tariffs.
However, he believes that the recent setback in the crypto market may be short-term, with the U.S. presidential inauguration approaching. He maintains a positive long-term outlook for crypto valuations.
