After a massive bloodbath in the last weeks of December due to the Fed’s hawkish comments, the crypto market is recovering in the first week of Jan. Though the market may not see a major rally this month like last year with bearish events like the CPI report, FOMC meeting in January 29 and Trump’s inauguration on Jan 20 will decide the fate of Bitcoin this month.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research predicts that Bitcoin could see a rally in early January, fueled by optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration. This momentum is likely to gain strength if inflation data, set to be released on January 15, goes well with market expectations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is a critical event, as a positive inflation print could boost Bitcoin prices higher. Additionally, the return of institutional investors and increased stablecoin minting could provide further support for Bitcoin’s performance. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and inflows are also crucial indicators to monitor. At present US Bitcoin ETFs are back in the game with a $900M inflow.
Potential Pullback Ahead
Thielen cautions that Bitcoin’s rally may face headwinds later in January. The Federal Reserve’s January 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to keep interest rates steady, which could dampen the rally’s momentum. This slight pullback is anticipated as the market factors in the Fed’s decision.
Bitcoin continues to dominate the crypto market with a 55% market share, making its performance critical for broader market trends. Thielen forecasts Bitcoin to trade between $97,000 and $98,000 by the end of January, considering a significant shift in macroeconomic conditions.
Whereas, John Glover from Ledn predicts a dip to $89,000 before rebounding to $125,000 by Q1’s end and reaching $160,000 by late 2025 or early 2026. This is slightly lower than VanEck and Bitwise’s $180,000–$200,000 forecasts. Despite short-term caution, Bitcoin jumped to $98,850 showcasing investor confidence back in the king crypto. Following the pump, Crypto Fear and Greed Index turned to “Extreme Greed” at 76/100, reflecting strong market optimism.
What lies Ahead?
This current dip in Bitcoin Prices is seen as a great opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $100K and is considered a normal process. However, right now all eyes are on Trump’s election promises if he manages to bring crypto regulations at the earliest and most importantly his plan of building a strategic US Bitcoin Reserve.
