2024 US Presidential elections At the beginning, uneasiness reached its peak in the stocks, treasury bills and cryptocurrency markets. Markets are waiting for one of the most contentious elections of recent years. Before the election, long positions called “Trump trades” (increasing returns on the dollar, cryptocurrencies and treasury bonds) have gained strength with Trump’s lead in the prediction markets. QCP CapitalAccording to , a possible victory for Harris could reverse these gains and trigger serious market movements overnight.
A 3.5 Percent Movement is Expected for Bitcoin, but the Risk May Be Higher
Cryptocurrency market, election night Bitcoin 
$68,797It predicts a +/- 3.5 percent movement in the spot price of (BTC). However, he may not have fully priced in post-election risks. The volatility premium beyond the November 8 futures contracts indicates that markets expect a quick resolution and possible delays or controversial outcomes can be ignored.
Volatility is almost certain to be high. During the surprise Trump victory in 2016, US futures first fell and then recovered. In 2020, Biden’s victory was finalized four days later and transaction volume reached a six-month peak.
On the other hand US Congress The results of the race could be as important as the presidential outcome. A Republican victory could increase future budget deficits, which could lead the Fed to pursue tighter monetary policy. This situation may have negative consequences for risky assets. On the other hand, a divided legislature can create a calmer environment in the markets and lead to reduced volatility.
Interest in BTC Continues in the Election Market
before the election options marketA balanced interest in both call and put options is observed. Experts stated that there has been an increasing demand for upper limit call and lower limit put options in recent days. However, Bitcoin still continues to be seen as a “Trump trade”.
Spot prices fell on Monday, with significant outflows from spot ETFs. This coincided with polls showing Harris with a slim lead in Iowa. Bitcoin’s spot price is expected to fluctuate as survey results begin to arrive tomorrow. It is still unclear how the markets will react to election night.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that crypto currencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should carry out their transactions in line with their own research.
