In this vicious circle of appeal and no appeal, Renowned attorney Jeremy Hogan recently shared his insights on the SEC’s decision to appeal the programmatic sales ruling in the ongoing Ripple case, and he didn’t mince words. According to Hogan, the SEC’s choice to pursue this appeal is a significant miscalculation that could ultimately backfire, not just for this case, but for its authority in regulating the broader cryptocurrency market.
Now the question is, if SEC appeals will they succeed, or is it a deliberate attempt to pull XRP?
Why the Appeal Could Hurt the SEC?
Hogan argues that the SEC is taking a major risk by appealing the programmatic sales decision. He believes that even if the SEC wins, it will only gain more financial compensation from Ripple, without achieving its core objective of protecting investors or advancing regulatory clarity. “It will get more money from Ripple and have protected no one,” Hogan emphasized. This win, according to Hogan, would likely be superficial and wouldn’t alter XRP’s use by Ripple in any meaningful way.
Ripple’s Strategic Play: The “Blue Sky” Laws
One of the most critical points Hogan raises is the potential of Ripple using the “Blue Sky” laws to counter the SEC. These laws refer to state securities regulations that existed before federal laws were established. Should Ripple succeed in leveraging this legal strategy, Hogan warns that the SEC’s power to regulate the entire cryptocurrency space could be severely diminished. “The SEC’s ability to regulate the entire crypto space is essentially destroyed,” Hogan added. This could be a devastating blow to the regulatory agency, appealing a high-risk, low-reward move.
Slim Chances for the SEC’s Success
Statistically, Hogan notes that the SEC is very likely to lose this appeal. He attributes this to the historical data and the detailed, fact-heavy nature of the original ruling, which makes overturning the decision more challenging. Even if the SEC manages to win, Hogan points out that it would likely only result in Ripple paying more fines, with no substantial changes to XRP’s status or usage by Ripple.
Long Timeline for Resolution
For those hoping for a quick resolution, Hogan offers a sobering timeline. He estimates that a final ruling from the appellate court won’t come until late 2025 or even early 2026. He had initially predicted a decision by the summer of 2025 but now admits that the process will likely take longer. Moreover, this means the crypto community could wait years for an outcome, with XRP’s status remaining in legal limbo.
Hogan noted the timing of SEC enforcement chief Gurbir Grewal’s departure on the same day as the appeal, hinting it might not be a coincidence. He suggested leadership changes at the SEC could speed up the case and joked that if Trump were re-elected, he would shift the SEC’s focus to real issues like scams and fraud.
