Bitcoin is down 9 percent this month. The big question is whether this is just normal price movement or if something else is going on. According to analyst Rekt Capital, this kind of downward trend is not unusual for September.
Historically, Bitcoin has had similar declines in September over the years, with drops ranging from 5% to 12% during 2017, 2020, 2021, and even 2018. So, this month’s drop is nothing out of the ordinary.
What Could Happen in October, November, and December?
The months following September have traditionally been strong for Bitcoin, especially during “halving” years (the years when Bitcoin’s mining rewards are cut in half, which often boosts its price). Let’s look at the last two halving years—2016 and 2020:
In 2016, after a down September, Bitcoin had a 14% gain in October, a 5% rise in November, and a big 30% jump in December. The analyst said that in 2020, the gains were even bigger—Bitcoin went up by 27% in October, 43% in November, and a massive 47% in December.
Since 2024 is also a halving year, we could see a similar pattern. If Bitcoin’s decline in September stays in single digits (like it has in past halving years), it could mean that the price will start rising in October and continue gaining through November and December.
A 14% rise in October (like in 2016) could push Bitcoin’s price back above a key level of $66,000. This level was a strong support point earlier this year, and moving above it could signal the start of a strong upward trend. If the gains are smaller, say 5%, it might not be enough to break through resistance levels. But a 30% rise (like in 2016’s December) could bring Bitcoin closer to $70,000, near its all-time high.
