The November 2024 elections are approaching and the timing is absolutely tremendous. The last quarter crypto- generally means an increase for. September reflecting its historical performance feeds hopes for a return as of October. Moreover, in the last quarter of the year FTX exchange will strengthen liquidity in the markets with cash refunds. So how is BTC performing in the US elections?
Bitcoin Performance in US Elections
It is important to be familiar with the movements that major upcoming events have caused in the past. For example, we have been talking about the Fed’s policy changes many times over the past year, causing a short or medium-term decline in risk markets. The first decline will occur in September, and cryptocurrencies will fall along with stocks. A Prize Pool Worth 21 Million TL Awaits You from BinanceTR! Participating and winning has never been easier.. You can sign up to BinanceTR from this link. Get your first crypto!
Halfway We mentioned that the BTC price will reach a new ATH level. BTC ETF With excitement, even before the halving, BTC broke an all-time record. Moreover, at the time this expectation was shared, BTC was at $ 28,000. It increased by more than $ 45,000. The gains in altcoins (at least in some of them) exceeded 5 times.
The big thing coming up now is the US Presidential Elections, which should cause a spike in BTC prices for one reason or another based on historical performance. In the chart below we see that the BTC price reached an all-time high after the previous 2 elections.
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BTC is still near its previous ATH level, similar to the $20,000 level in the previous cycle. So it has not yet seen its cycle top. This suggests that the BTC price could reach six-figure levels by the middle of next year, with optimism increasing since October-November.
US Labor Force Reports
According to the report published on Thursday, the US employment weakened significantly. We saw last month how the historically unprecedented downward revision of the labor force data forced the Fed to use clearer language on rate cuts. Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech that rate cuts are coming.
Labor markets are weakening and this is a threat to risk markets in the short term, especially because it negatively impacts technology companies. In fact, this is one of the main reasons for the recent negativity in the market. The Kobeissi Letter shared the following graph about 1 hour ago and wrote;
“Layoffs at U.S. companies rose 193% in August to 75,891, compared with 25,885 layoffs announced in July, according to the Challenger Report released on Thursday.
This increase was driven by technology companies, which announced 39,563 layoffs, the highest number in the last 20 months, and accounted for ~52% of all layoffs. Tech companies announced 5.5X more layoffs than the previous month. Additionally, the education sector announced 25,396 layoffs in 2024, a 222% increase compared to 2023. More evidence of a weakening labor market.”
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not contain investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should carry out their transactions in line with their own research.
