Bitcoin Behaves Differently This Cycle Ahead Of The Halving Event: Insights From On-Chain Data On BTC Price

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a drop following Bitcoin’s record high last week, with its price touching the support at $60K. This correction could lead to further drops, including potential flash crashes, despite a positive long-term view from analysts. Ahead of the halving event, BTC price seems to change its sentiment for the cycle, triggered by bearish on-chain metrics.

Bitcoin Rebounds Amid Rising FOMO

Bitcoin’s price bounced back to nearly $65,000 after hitting a weekly low of $60K. However, the crypto market is anxiously awaiting the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, which will play a crucial role in determining if the recent correction has ended.

Following a streak of new all-time highs in recent weeks, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline from just under $74,000 last Thursday, dropping over 15% toward $60,000 on Tuesday and pulling down other digital assets with it.

The drop in Bitcoin’s price followed reduced investments in U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recently, partially due to investors’ hesitation to take risks ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting’s outcome.

Over the last seven days, BTC price witnessed a massive decline in whale interest as the metric dropped from the peak of $116 billion to $70 billion. This suggests a decline in whale interest and can slowly plunge the volatility of BTC, resulting in a consolidation within a bearish channel.

However, the Netflow remains in the negative zone, suggesting that outflow volume is surpassing inflow. This can create a decline in exchange reserves, reducing the chances of a selling pressure. CryptoQuant revealed that there has been a significant decrease of nearly 40% in Bitcoin supply on exchanges over the past four years, and this trend is continuing as we approach the Bitcoin halving event.

This is positive news within the Bitcoin community, as it suggests that the majority of investors are holding onto their assets with no immediate intentions to sell.

What’s Next For BTC Price?

Bitcoin rebounded from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) priced at $61K, showing that buyers are actively acquiring at dips to robust support levels. This has prevented BTC price from initiating any sudden decline below support levels. As of writing, BTC price trades at $64,454, declining over 1.5% from yesterday’s rate. 

The BTC/USDT trading pair is facing resistance at the level where it previously broke down from an ascending channel pattern. Should the price decline and fall below the 200-day EMA, it would indicate that the bears have converted the channel’s support line into a resistance point. This conversion will increase the chances of a decline toward $59K.

Conversely, if the bulls manage to send the price back within the channel above $65K, it will imply that the market has dismissed the initial breakdown. In this scenario, the bulls will attempt once more to push the pair toward $70,000. Surpassing this threshold could pave the way for a potential surge to $75,000.

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