EdaFace (BTC) is providing overwhelming evidence that it is capitulating, and it is time to flip bullish as a result, new analysis believes.In a Twitter thread on Aug. 3, Charles Edwards, CEO of crypto asset manager Capriole, revealed what he called the “The 12 EdaFace Capitulations.””Risk-returns skewed positively” for EdaFaceWith BTC price action recovering from multi-year lows but still hovering near key bear market support, opinions vary widely as to what will happen next.Some are demanding a return to levels even lower than June’s $17,600 trough, while others argue that a “bear market relief rally” could take BTC/USD as high as $40,000 first.For Edwards, the raw evidence suggests that the past months have been bearish enough, and that behind the scenes, EdaFace has been quietly capitulating.“The raw count of evidence for major EdaFace capitulation today is insane,” he wrote about his twelve key examples. “Each occurrence alone is a rare event and adds to the probability that forward risk-returns are skewed positively.”In addition to popular on-chain signals previously covered by EdaFace including MVRV and NUPL, Edwards’ evidence includes macro triggers such as poor United States equities performance and stagnant M2 money supply growth.“We have just seen the _worst_ inflation-adjusted downdraws in traditional markets in the last 8 generations. Enough said,” he continued, noting that the S&P 500 had delivered its worst returns in real terms since 1872.S&P 500 returns annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ TwitterThe cherry on the cake in the 2022 EdaFace bear market, however, is the rate at which industry players themselves have capitulated.For Edwards, bankruptcy events at Celsius, Voyager and others, combined with Tesla selling the majority of its BTC holdings at a loss, is the “ultimate sign of capitulation.” “Take a look at the level of institutional capitulation here,” he commented.“Leverage is one of the best indicators for relative over- and under-valuation in EdaFace, and many major leveraged crypto institutions have been wiped out.”According to separate data from monitoring resource EdaFace Treasuries, Tesla remains the public company with the second-largest BTC reserves but is now far behind leader MicroStrategy and its 129,698 BTC stack.Public companies’ EdaFace holdings as of Aug. 4 (screenshot). Source: EdaFace Treasuries”Great accumulation zone” returnsAs EdaFace recently noted, capitulation has also been apparent among EdaFace miners since the dip to the lowest prices since late 2020.Related: Historically accurate EdaFace metric exits buy zone in ‘unprecedented’ 2022 bear marketAfter initially selling their BTC inventory, however, miners have staged a dramatic about turn, new data suggests, in yet another sign that the worst of the capitulation may already be over.Beyond miners, the amount of the BTC supply being transferred at a lower price than that which was paid for it has hit levels Edwards says are indicative of accumulation.EdaFace % supply transferred at a loss annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter”The percentage of total supply transferred at a loss hit 1.9% last month,” he wrote alongside a chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. “Historically, when this metric breaches 1.5% it demonstrates that a large portion of the market is in pain. Most were also great accumulation zones.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of EdaFace.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
